When will Coronavirus Pandemic end ? - Groovy Science


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Saturday, April 18, 2020

When will Coronavirus Pandemic end ?

Coronavirus World Pandamic

Coronavirus or more specifically COVID-19 has now spread through almost 210 Countries and territories, infecting over 2 Million people and has taken the life of 150,000 people worldwide. The virus has ruined many businesses, and in the US alone, it has put 16 million workers out of their jobs. It is affecting the world economy, and it is believed by many economists that we are officially in a Global Recession.

So, When will this nightmare end? The answer to this question depends on many factors. But, before we get into that, let us understand a bit about this virus. The first case of COVID-19 was reported in Wuhan, the capital of china's Hubei province. In the initial stages, they tried to contain it and isolated the people infected by the virus, but the virus still found it's way to almost 210 Countries and is still spreading and no one is immune to this Noval virus. You might have heard that if you catch chickenpox once, you won't catch it again. It means once you are infected by the chickenpox virus and recover from it, you won't be infected again, in a way you are immune to that virus after that. Which indicates this virus's mutation rate is very low. But the mutation rate of COVID-19 is yet to be determined, the virus is totally new to us, and It is one of the latest member of the Coronavirus family. It is way deadlier than common flu. About 12,000 - 61,000 people die every year due to common flu, but as of 18th April 2020 the coronavirus has killed over 150,000 people, and that is just in last two months. It spreads way faster than flu and can survive on the hard surfaces for 3-4 Days. It is also airborne which means it can survive in the air for 2 - 4 Hours, So it is necessary to wear a mask while going outside. The "incubation period" means the time between catching the virus and beginning to have symptoms of the disease. The Incubation period for COVID-19 is 4-14 Days, which means a person will not have any idea that he's been infected for maximum 14 days and in that time he would infect more people on the way without even knowing. 

So, Let's get into the main point, based on the opinions of the world's leading experts, we hope to provide you answer to this burning question today. Science writer Ed Yong, who wrote an article over two years ago explaining why we're due to a global pandemic and has said that there are three potential ways the Pandemic can come to an end.

  1. The unlikely way
  2. The Dangerous way
  3. The long way

1.The Unlikely way

Yong then mentions that the unlikely way would involve all the world's nations would start taking major decisions immediately and simultaneously getting this terrible virus under control through strong quarantine measures and mass-testing rollouts, much like the 2003 SARS outbreak. But we are way past this situation, the virus has already spread to many countries infecting a lot of people and even the strong quarantine measures and mass testing rollouts would take months to get the situation under control. Because of poor decisions taken by the world's major countries, it is unlikely that we will get back to our normal life in the near future. Take the USA for an example; one of the most developed and prosperous nations in the world which have become the global epicentre for the Pandemic. So, the unlikely way is very UNLIKELY to happen.

2.The dangerous way

The second possibility for how the coronavirus Pandemic might end is also the fastest, but it will come with some pretty horrific costs. As we discussed earlier, this way depends on the immunity of a person to this virus. It means not taking any action and getting back to the normal life and hoping that someday those who recover will develop the proper antibodies to fight the virus and become immune to it, protecting the overall population. This is literally equivalent to allowing a fire to burn itself out; this will leave the world with little left to burn. You would think this is one of the craziest things you might have heard, and no country will ever think of doing something like this as it would consume tens of millions of lives, then you would be shocked to know that the UK government initially intended to go through this terrible path.

3.The long way

Extreme Social Distancing

This third scenario is the most realistic and will cause less collateral damage to human life, but this also means that it will be far longer before society as we know it will return to normal. The idea is to remain quarantine and practice social distancing to stop the spread of the virus, well, of course, the strong quarantine measures and extreme social distancing will not stop this virus, but it doesn't mean it will not help fight against it. The less human contact will slower the spread of the virus, and it will give our heroes (Doctors & Scientists) some time to develop an effective coronavirus vaccine. This might seem very simple to you, but it is actually very intense process, the number of infections will continue to increase across the globe during this period, many vulnerable people will die as a result. The main goal at this stage is to minimize how many of these deaths occur, fewer infections will mean fewer people to treat, and this will increase the chances of recovering more number of people as they will get regularly required treatments. So, to answer your question really depends on how we, as a society, react to this global problem. Right now, all the world's leading scientists are working day and night to find and develop an effective vaccine, and it is our job to stay home and stop the spread of this virus. It is very unlikely that we will get a vaccine in the next 2-3 months, and even if we did, it would take quite some time - when factoring in testing, development and distribution, to get full coverage, it will likely take from 12-18 months.

COVID-19 Vaccine

COVID-19 is still new to us, there is a lot we don't know yet, for instance, we don't know if it is seasonal or not what is the immunity period for it and so on. According to WHO there are 44 candidate vaccines in clinical evaluation right now and according to Anthony Fauci, who is the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, recently said in an interview that a COVID-19 vaccine could take 12 to 18 months to develop, test and approve for public use. New vaccines typically take years to earn approval — can we really expect a coronavirus vaccine to be ready by summer 2021?      
COVID-19 Symptoms

So in this hard time, we need to unite. I request you all good people who are reading this article, please do not go outside, stay home, practice extreme social distancing. This virus isn't going soon, so we better start adapting to this new lifestyle, in a way you've been given a gift to figure out other expects of your life. Your inner desires and your dreams, find them if you haven't already. Spend time with your family as much as you can and help the less fortunate. Above is the symptoms of COVID-19 if you feel you might have them please call your emergency helpline and avoid Human contact as much as you can.
COVID-19 Prevention

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